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United States presidential election in Hawaii, 2004

← 2000 November 2, 2004 2008 →

Nominee John Kerry George W. Bush Party Democratic Republican Home state Massachusetts Texas Running mate John Edwards Dick Cheney Electoral vote 4 0 Popular vote 231,708 194,191 Percentage 54.01% 45.26%

County Results Kerry   50-60%   60-70%

President before election George W. Bush Republican Elected President George W. Bush Republican

Elections in Hawaii
Federal government Presidential elections 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 Presidential caucuses Democratic 2008 2016 Republican 2008 2012 U.S. Senate elections 1976 1982 1988 1992 1994 1998 2000 2004 2006 2010 2012 2016 2018 U.S. House elections 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 Special elections Senate, 1990 2nd district, 2002-2003 1st district, 2010 Senate, 2014
State government Gubernatorial elections 1959 1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 State Senate elections 2012 2018 State House of Representatives elections 2012 2018
Ballot measures 1998 Amendment 2
Honolulu Mayoral elections 2010 2012 2016
v t e

The 2004 United States presidential election in Hawaii took place on November 2, 2004. Voters chose 4 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

Hawaii was won by Democratic nominee John Kerry by an 8.7% margin of victory. Prior to the election, all 12 news organizations considered this a state Kerry would win, or otherwise considered as a safe blue state. A Republican presidential nominee has carried the state only twice since its statehood (In 1972 and 1984).

This was the first time ever that Hawaii did not vote for an incumbent president who ran for, and was elected to, a second term.

Caucuses

• Hawaii Democratic caucuses, 2004

Campaign

Predictions

There were 12 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.^[1]

1. D.C. Political Report: Solid Democrat


2. 
   Associated Press: Solid Kerry


3. 
   CNN: Kerry


4. 
   Cook Political Report: Solid Democrat


5. 
   Newsweek: Solid Kerry


6. 
   New York Times: Solid Kerry


7. 
   Rasmussen Reports: Kerry


8. 
   Research 2000: Solid Kerry


9. 
   Washington Post: Kerry


10. 
    Washington Times: Solid Kerry


11. 
    Zogby International: Kerry


12. Washington Dispatch: Kerry

Polling

Only 4 pre-election polls were taken in the state in the entire 2004 election. Kerry won the first two, which were taken before October, and Bush won the other 2 which were taken in the final month of October. The final RCP average gave Bush leading with a margin of 0.9%. ^[2] The final 3 polls averaged Kerry leading 48% to 43%.^[3]

Fundraising

Bush raised $906,799.^[4] Kerry raised $279,877.^[5]

Advertising and visits

Neither campaign spent advertising money during the fall campaign. However, with polls showing the race tightening, Vice President Cheney appeared at a campaign rally for the Republican ticket in Honolulu on October 31, 2004. ^[6][7]

Analysis

Bush and Cheney did campaign here early on, but not throughout the entire campaign. Hawaii is considered too much of a Democratic stronghold to be a swing state. Hawaii is represented by two Democratic senators and representatives, and there has never been any competition in a senatorial election. Despite Bush's loss in the state, he improved upon his performance in the state from 2000. More importantly, he had the strongest showing for a Republican presidential candidate in the state since 1984, doing a little better than his father did in 1988.^{[citation needed]}

Results

Results breakdown

By county

By congressional district

Kerry won both congressional districts.^[10]

Electors

Technically the voters of Hawaii cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Hawaii is allocated 4 electors because it has 2 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 4 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 4 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from Hawaii. All were pledged to and voted for John Kerry and John Edwards:^[11]

1. Frances Kagawa


2. Joy Kobashigawa Lewis


3. Samuel Mitchell


4. Dolly Strazar

References

See also